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How it works

Two numbers and a verdict, with the reasons showing

Fit asks whether you could credibly deliver this. Win odds asks what your realistic chance is if you bid. The verdict combines the two with thresholds you control. This page explains each one.

Onboarding

From ABN to profile in five minutes

  1. Step 1

    Enter your ABN

    We look it up on the Australian Business Register and pull your entity name, business names, state and GST status. Nothing to type but eleven digits.

  2. Step 2

    We read your website

    A polite crawl of your public pages drafts your services, sectors, regions, size band, certifications and panels. Anything your site does not say is marked as not held rather than guessed.

  3. Step 3

    You confirm on one screen

    Each drafted item is a chip you confirm, edit or remove. Set the regions you serve and the contract sizes you want. Most people are done in five minutes, then the first digest arrives the next morning.

Fit score

Seven criteria, weighted, each with a one-line reason

Before anything is scored, a coarse filter drops notices outside your regions, categories, value band and closing window. What remains is scored on the criteria to the right. Each produces a 0 to 100 sub-score and a sentence explaining it, and the weighted sum is the fit.

Example

Fit78 of 100
  • 82 Capability. Scope is network design and implementation, which the profile covers directly.
  • 90 Geography. Six WA regional sites, business based in Perth with regional travel listed.
  • 55 Mandatory. ISO 9001 required and not confirmed in the profile. Unchecked, not failed.
Fit score criteria and weights
CriterionWeightWhat it measures
Capability match35Do your services cover what the buyer is asking for, at the depth the scope implies?
Sector familiarity10Have you worked in this buyer's sector, such as health, defence, local government or education?
Geography10Can you service the delivery location? Remote delivery counts where the scope allows it.
Value and scale15Is the contract size within what you have delivered before, adjusted for your size band?
Mandatory requirements20Panel membership, prequalification, certifications such as ISO 9001, 27001 or IRAP, security clearances, insurance limits and local content rules. An unmet mandatory item is a blocker, not a deduction.
Timeline5Days to close, relative to the effort a response of this size needs.
Buyer relationship5Prior contracts with this buyer in the award history where the supplier ABN matches yours.

Win odds

A probability with a band, never a green tick

Win odds come from award history, not from the tender text. The inputs are the base rate for the procurement method, how many contracts this buyer awards in this category each year and how many different suppliers win them, how often the incumbent is re-awarded, how often the buyer awards to businesses your size, and how the contract value compares with what you have won before. Fit feeds in as a multiplier but is not the whole story.

The band is wide when the history is thin and narrows as data accumulates. Every month the predictions are checked against real outcomes across all customers, so a 15 percent shown here is meant to come true about 15 percent of the time.

When you log bid, no bid, won or lost, the outcome joins the training set for the next version of the model.

Example

Win odds12% (6-20%)
0%100%

Read as twelve percent, somewhere between six and twenty. This buyer has awarded nine contracts in this category over three years to five different suppliers, with the incumbent re-awarded twice. Open field, but not a new entrant’s market.

Verdict

Three bins, in plain words

Your profile carries three thresholds. A fit score you consider worth pursuing (70 by default), a lower fit worth a look (45), and the minimum win odds you will spend a week on (5 percent). Move them whenever you like.

  1. No bid

    Any blocker at all, such as a panel you are not on or a certification you do not hold, is a No bid regardless of fit. So is a fit under the Consider threshold. The reasons are always shown, because seeing why something was rejected is what makes the Pursue list trustworthy.

  2. Consider

    No blockers, fit at or above the Consider threshold, but either the fit falls short of Pursue or the win odds fall below your minimum. Worth ten minutes, not a week.

  3. Pursue

    No blockers, fit at or above the Pursue threshold, and win odds at or above your minimum. These are the ones the morning digest leads with.

The rule, exactly as the code has it

if there are blockers                      then No bid
else if fit >= 70 and win odds >= 5%       then Pursue
else if fit >= 45                          then Consider
otherwise                                  No bid

Feedback

One click, and the profile learns

Marking bid, no bid, won or lost takes one click from the digest or the pipeline board.

  • Say no to a Pursue and give a reason, and the services that drove that match carry a little less weight on your profile.
  • Bid on a Consider or a No bid, and the matching weights go up.
  • Won and lost outcomes feed the win model with the factors as they stood when the notice was scored.
  • None of this changes anyone else’s profile. Your corrections are yours.
Start free, no cardScore a tender first